文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：长三角城市人口收缩的特征、经济效应与政策回应

英文题名：Characteristics,Economic Effects,and Policy Responses of Urban Shrinkage in Yangtze River Delta

作者：程瑶[1];张松林[2];刘志迎[3];黄性芳[1]

机构：[1]南京审计大学统计与数据科学学院,江苏南京211815;[2]绍兴文理学院商学院,浙江绍兴312000;[3]中国科学技术大学管理学院,安徽合肥230026

年份：2021

卷号：35

期号：8

起止页码：21

中文期刊名：华东经济管理

外文期刊名：East China Economic Management

收录：国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库、CSSCI_E2021_2022、北大核心、CSSCI、北大核心2020

基金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“长三角区域城市人口收缩的经济效应与应对政策研究”(20YJC790173);国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于审计大数据分析的统计过程控制研究”(20BTJ057)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：实际城市人口收缩;潜在城市人口收缩;经济效应

外文关键词：real urban shrinkage;potential urban shrinkage;economic effect

中文摘要：在长三角区域一体化发展上升为国家战略的背景下,各种经济要素随着区域一体化的推进将会更加自由地在城市间流动,从而放大大城市对区域内中小城市的虹吸效应,加重这些城市的人口收缩。如何促进人口收缩城市与整个城市群的协调发展,势必成为长三角区域一体化推进过程中不得不面对的重要问题。文章利用2009-2018年的常住人口数据对长三角地区41个地级及以上城市进行识别发现,长三角地区已有中小城市出现人口收缩,且常住人口规模越小,收入水平越低,距离区域内中心城市越远,出现人口收缩的可能性越大;城市人口收缩对城市生产率具有负效应,主要缘于城市人口收缩引致人力资本水平和经济集聚程度下降。据此,人口收缩城市应积极融入长三角区域,在最大范围内与区域内城市产生交互作用,以充分利用长三角区域一体化在吸引人才方面的优势与城市群的集聚经济效应。

外文摘要：Under the background that the development of regional integration in Yangtze River Delta has become a national strategy,various economic factors will flow more freely among cities with the promotion of regional integration,thus amplifying the siphon effect of big cities on small and medium-sized cities in the region and aggravating the population shrinkage of these cities.How to promote the coordinated development of shrinking cities and the whole urban agglomeration is bound to become an important problem in the process of promoting regional integration in the Yangtze River Delta.This paper uses the data of permanent residents from 2009 to 2018 to identify 41 cities at prefecture level and above in the Yangtze River Delta.It is found that there has been population shrinkage in small and medium-sized cities in the Yangtze River Delta,and the smaller the size of the permanent residents,the lower the income level,and the farther away from the central cities in the region,the greater the possibility of population shrinkage;urban shrinkage has a negative impact on urban productivity,mainly due to the decline of human capital level and economic agglomeration caused by urban population shrinkage.Therefore,shrinking cities should actively integrate into the regional integration of the Yangtze River Delta,and interact with the cities in the region to the maximum extent,so as to make full use of the advantages of the Yangtze River Delta in attracting talents and the agglomeration economy of the whole urban agglomeration.