文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：养老金改革、隐性负债与中国经济动态效率

英文题名：Pension Reform,Implicit Liabilities and Economic Dynamic Efficiency

作者：杨继军[1];张松林[2]

机构：[1]南京财经大学;[2]绍兴文理学院商学院

年份：2018

卷号：0

期号：10

起止页码：45

中文期刊名：南京社会科学

外文期刊名：Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences

收录：CSTPCD、、国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库、北大核心2017、CSSCI2017_2018、北大核心、社科基金资助期刊、CSSCI

基金：国家自然科学基金项目"养老金筹资模式影响中国经济动态效率的机制研究"(71503116);江苏高校"青蓝工程"中青年学术带头人项目;江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目"新常态下江苏经济转型;产业升级与就业促进研究"(2015ZDAXM009)的研究成果

语种：中文

中文关键词：现收现付制;养老金改革;隐性负债;动态效率

外文关键词：Pay-As-You-Go;pension reform;implicit liabilities;dynamic efficiency

中文摘要：本文测算了我国养老金改革中隐性负债的规模,并在世代交叠模型下考察了隐性负债的分配对中国经济动态效率的影响。研究发现,2015年隐性负债的规模已经达到58万亿以上,占当年GDP的85. 9%。养老金由现收现付制向部分积累制转轨后,对储蓄产生了显著的"挤入效应",助长了资本积累的物质基础,加剧了中国经济的动态无效。进一步研究发现,养老金筹资模式与经济动态效率的关系受到隐性负债的交叉影响,如果隐性负债是通过"延后型"税收序列来化解,则相当于将未来代际的消费转移至当前代际,有助于改善中国经济的动态效率;代际间的"利他主义行为"可能通过遗产馈赠方式对隐性负债进行对冲,弱化隐性负债对经济动态效率的影响。因此,本文建议将养老金改革从部分积累制转向名义账户制,以弱化资本积累的基础,通过"延后型"税收序列将隐性负债转向未来代际,开征遗产税,减少代际馈赠规模,降低储蓄和资本积累,提高经济运行的动态效率。

外文摘要：This paper measures the scale of implicit liabilities in China’s pension reform and examines the impact of implicit debt allocation on China’s economic dynamic efficiency under the overlapping generation model. The study found that the scale of implicit liabilities in 2015 has reached more than RMB 58 trillion,accounting for 85. 9% of GDP in the year. The funded system has a significant 'crowding-in'effect on savings,which contributes to the material basis of over-accumulation of capital. Further studies have found that the relationship between the pension fund-raising model and economic dynamic efficiency is affected by the implicit liabilities. If the implicit debt is resolved through the'back loaded'tax sequence,it is equivalent to shifting future generational consumption to the current generation,which will help improve the dynamic efficiency of the Chinese economy. However,intergenerational altruism may hedge hidden liabilities through heritage gifts and weaken the impact of implicit liabilities on economic dynamic efficiency. Therefore,this paper proposes to shift the pension reform from a partial accumulation system to a nominal account system to weaken the foundation for capital accumulation. At the same time,we can turn implicit liabilities to future generations through 'back loaded'tax sequences,and levy the inheritance tax to reduce the amount of intergenerational gifts and shift the consumption from future generations to current generations.