文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Investigation of changes in water resources and grain production in China: changing patterns and uncertainties

作者：Kuang, Wei[1,3];Hu, Yunjin[2];Dai, Xiangqian[4];Song, Xingyuan[1]

机构：[1]Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China;[2]Shaoxing Univ, Coll Civil Engn, Shaoxing, Peoples R China;[3]Changjiang Water Resources Commiss, Bur Hydrol, Water Resources & Survey Bur Changjiang Middle Re, Wuhan, Peoples R China;[4]Minist Water Resources Peoples Republ China, Res Dev Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China

年份：2015

卷号：122

期号：3-4

起止页码：557

外文期刊名：THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY

收录：SCI-EXPANDED(收录号：WOS:000363061900011)、、Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-84944278893)、WOS

语种：英文

外文摘要：Water resources are very important for grain production in China. In this study, we investigate the changes in streamflow and grain production in China from 1956 to 2008. Since the 1980s, the increase of total grain production was mainly contributed by northern China where significantly decreasing precipitation and available water resources were observed. From 1985 to 2008, northern China accounted for 92.9 % of the national total grain production growth. Consequently, the main grain production area has shifted from the south to the north. However, the shift was mismatching the spatial distributions and temporal changes in precipitation and available water resources in China. During 1956 through 2008, precipitation decreased in the main grain production areas of the northern China by 1.23-1.27 mm per year. During the same period, observed streamflows in the five major rivers in northern China decreased by 13.4-92.4 %. Current grain production in northern China is dependent on overexploitation of groundwater. From 1987 to 2000, the average groundwater table declined 10.8 m with a maximum decrease of 34.8 m in North China Plain. Furthermore, the impacts of climate change and projected industrial development exacerbate the uncertainty of grain supply by northern China in the future. This study also indicated the potential of southern China for a more important role in ensuring sustainable food security of China, with increasing precipitation and streamflows observed in the Yangtze River and Pearl River basins.